DEVORA has created eight representative unrest-to-eruption scenarios to aid planning for an Auckland Volcanic Field eruption and to complement quantitative probabilistic and risk-based approaches.
The scenarios cover a range of eruption styles and sizes and are tailored to specific environmental conditions. Each scenario draws on the latest domestic and international research to portray credible hazards and hazard intensities given various substrates and magma volumes and their corresponding eruption styles and sizes.
They were co-produced in a transdisciplinary project involving scientists, emergency managers, and representatives from critical infrastructure providers to create a product representing a common language between scientists and stakeholders. In a further step, a novel methodology was developed to bridge scenario-based and probabilistic volcanic hazard assessments by deriving a pseudo-probabilistic hazard estimate from the suite of scenarios, in which the relative likelihoods of each scenario at every location in the field were identified.
These scenarios have allowed DEVORA to work with our lifeline partners to model the potential effects on infrastructure, to estimate the economic consequences of an eruption in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, to explore the potential use of cost-benefit analysis in evacuation decision making, and to model gas hazards.
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Planning for the future
Many people and assets are EXPOSED to an eruption, but it will likely IMPACT only a fraction of them, we’re helping plan for that.