Potential impact on people, buildings, economy and the environment

While many people, assets, and natural features are exposed to volcanic threat in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland, only a portion are likely to be ultimately affected. The local risks and impacts of a volcanic eruption are varied and complex. The information below comes from the Auckland Volcanic Field Response Plan by Auckland Emergency Management and was informed by DEVORA research.

Social environment impact

Details below describe the people that could be exposed to the next Auckland Volcanic Field eruption, but only a fraction of these may ultimately be affected by the event. The size of the evacuation zone will depend on how certain we are of an eruption and the location of the vent.

As of June 2026:

  • Maximum evacuation numbers in the volcanic threat zone could be up to 1.5 million people.
  • 214 geographic suburbs are exposed. No communities are more at risk than others as the eruption could occur anywhere with the field
  • 25 marae are exposed
  • 156 aged-care facilities are exposed
  • 1,891 education facilities are exposed (1,252 ECE, 478 Schools, and 161 Tertiary institutions)
  • Public transport including most major transport routes into or through the city are exposed.
  • Health effects from the impacts of volcanic ash and gases within and outside of the volcanic threat zone.
  • Major social and psychological effects (e.g. stress, trauma, depression etc.) caused by evacuations, loss of investments, possessions, homes and businesses, as well as access to lifeline utilities and social networks.
  • People and animals may be displaced from their homes due to evacuations and damage.
  • Increased financial pressures through costs for medical treatment and care, relocation costs, loss of reduction of earning/income, increased prices for food, energy and other products/debts.
  • Inconvenience due to disruption of services and/or disruption to households (e.g. increased travel costs, temporary accommodation, public services etc.).
  • Loss of amenity/cultural value such as landforms of significance, access to places of gathering, disconnection of communities.

Built environment

Details below describe the buildings exposed to the next Auckland Volcanic Field eruption, however, only a fraction of these may ultimately be affected by the event. As of June 2026:

  • Over 450,000 buildings are exposed including 420,000 residential properties, and approximately 17,500 commercial, 10,000 industrial, 10,000 services, and 1000 utilities buildings.
  • Critical lifeline control centres are currently exposed including control centres for ATOC, Auckland Rail, Auckland Airport, Watercare, Transpower, and Spark telephone exchanges and international fibre optic cable networks.
  • West coast communities could become isolated or would need to travel through the volcanic threat zone to leave the region.
  • Total destruction and burial of buildings and infrastructure directly over the vent and in the path of base surges and lava flows.
  • Widespread damage to infrastructure from ash including buildings impacted by partial/total roof collapse (especially if ash becomes wet following rain).
  • Damage or blockages in wastewater and storm water network including to pumping and wastewater treatment plants and assets by ash entering the network.
  • Risk of flashover on electricity transmission or distribution systems and damage to telecommunications systems. Indirect impacts to systems and utilities reliant on electricity supply.
  • Potential impact on the Marsden Point fuel pipeline and North Island high pressure gas main.
  • Major difficulty with clean-up of ash, particularly once it becomes wet. Knock-on effects on collection of other solid waste, including additional materials resulting from damage to or subsequent demolition of physical infrastructure affected by the event.
  • Impacts to water supply, particularly given the reliance of metropolitan Auckland on surface water catchments in the Waitākere, Hunua and the Waikato River.
  • Disruption to Auckland International Airport as a major portal to the country (trade and tourism), and similarly to the Port of Auckland Ltd.
  • Increased possibility of lightning strikes during the eruption causing further damage.
  • Traction issues on roads and damage to vehicles by debris and ash entering air-intake system, which may persist after the eruption ends.
  • Unavailability of some rail services due to impacts on lines, rolling stock and/or availability of electricity.
  • Windows blown out from shockwaves.
  • Potential impact from hazardous substances stored in impacted area, or evacuation zone including chemical and fuel storage areas.
  • Impacts on road networks could affect fuel and/or fast-moving consumer goods.
  • Generators deployed to assist with electricity outages may experience failure from ash.
  • There may be knock-on effects to other regions e.g. Northland for electricity transmission, Waikato for fuel.
  • Deterioration of critical systems or structures due to the inability to perform routine maintenance or repairs during evacuations.

Economic environment

Economic modelling suggests that an AVF eruption will result in a reduction in Tāmaki Makaurau / Auckland’s GDP in the first year. This disruption will likely extend to the national GDP due to the region’s economic and business importance. Other economic impacts include:

  • Disruption to regional and local business and to economic operations (e.g. loss of staff or buildings, loss of access to supplies or infrastructure services, loss of business centres).
  • Potential disruption to the ports, airports or mainland-based transport corridors, major gateways for goods and access to the region.
  • Disruption to commercial activity (particularly retailing due to loss in market confidence and loss of markets).
  • Loss of tourism initially, probably followed by an influx of tourists to see the volcano (as seen in recent years in Iceland and Hawaii).
  • Issues with post-event insurance availability and insurance premium loadings.
  • Long term (or possibly permanent) loss of land use and economic return from volcanic vent area.
  • Cost of damage, clean-up, restoration, repair, removal of debris emergency response and relief.
  • Increased operating and distribution costs, loss of contracts and consumer/investor confidence.
  • Revenue losses from rates and additional costs in the public sector (e.g., extra staff, training etc.).

Natural environment

As a natural hazard, volcanic eruptions can fundamentally change the natural environment where they occur. Impacts include:

  • Ash and gases released will reduce air quality.
  • Ash deposits coat and destroy plant life including pasture but may enrich soils with minerals and nutrients in the long term.
  • Possible contamination of water sources, such as ash falling on open raw water reservoirs could impact water quality but also require ongoing strategies to be managed effectively.
  • Secondary impacts to the environment resulting from damage to wastewater and stormwater infrastructure.
  • Destruction of habitats and displacement of wildlife due to lava flows and ash deposits.
  • Underwater eruptions can alter ocean chemistry affecting ocean ecosystems around the eruption site.
  • Eruptions reshape landscapes, creating new landforms.
  • Eruptions can lead to loss of wildlife and disrupt food chains.

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