Simulation of post volcanic eruption land use and economic recovery pathways over a period of 20 years in the Auckland region of New Zealand

Abstract

In this paper we simulate the economic impacts and land use changes associated with a volcanic eruption scenario for the Auckland region of New Zealand for a period of 20 years following the eruption. The simulation demonstrates the capability to model not only the direct physical impacts associated with infrastructure and land use destruction and disruption, but also population and business evacuation and relocation, and the flow-on socio-economic and land use planning implications associated with recovery. Importantly, these phenomena are considered alongside longer-term growth-related pressures on city development. Our simulations demonstrate how taking longer to remediate the area directly impacted by the volcanic eruption can result in more urban development on the urban-rural boundaries than might have otherwise occurred. Furthermore, we show how changes in where urban development may occur can be simulated in response to impacts on the region's transport network and when redevelopment can, or is allowed, to begin in the area physically impacted by the eruption. We discuss opportunities for further developments to incorporate a wider range of socio-economic and land use change effects associated with volcanic eruptions into this modelling. These developments will enable planning authorities to assess trade-offs with competing objectives in mitigation and redevelopment strategies to respond to volcanic eruptions and other natural hazard events.