Tracking a volcanic eruption with BET_EF software: Application to the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand
Abstract
Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) is a model that allows you to compute and visualize near real time probabilities of different events during a period of volcanic unrest until the moment of eruption. After being tested at different volcanoes, on both past eruptions and a simulated exercise, it was used in March 2008 during Exercise Ruaumoko which simulated a volcanic eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), New Zealand. In this paper we provide a description of the data and parameters that we used to customize the software code for the AVF, and compare the results obtained with those of the advising scientists. We thus emphasize the inputs and the outputs of the BET_EF code, and illustrate how it can be used as an eruption forecasting tool.
Plain language summary
BET_EF is a software tool that calculates the changing probability of an eruption during a period of volcanic unrest. This paper describes how it was set up for Auckland and tested during "Exercise Ruaumoko," a 2008 simulated eruption drill, comparing the software's outputs with what the human expert advisors judged at the time.
Citation
Constantinescu R, Lindsay J (2010). Tracking a volcanic eruption with BET_EF software: Application to the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. Geographia Technica.
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Authors
Constantinescu R, Lindsay J
Published in
Geographia Technica
Peer reviewed
Yes
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